BrevardVotersGuide.org

It is pretty well agreed that there are four candidates in the running for FL, but in my opinion, only Rudy, McCain, and Romney have a shot at the nomination. Of these, Rudy is not pro-life. His nomination would be a disaster for two reasons: (a) it would ensure a pro-abort in the white house, and (b) almost certainly ensure a loss in Nov, anyway because so many of us would stay home. Remember, the nation is nearly split 50/50, so it will be all about turnout in November. John McCain has arguably been pro-life, but his performance in getting conservative judges confirmed—arguably the most important pro-life issue at the federal level—has been disastrous. Further, he too will drive a great many conservatives to stay home in Nov., due to his views and past actions.

By the way, it is of course clear that Romney has changed sides in the abortion debate and is now pro-life—many think cynically, I believe sincerely. If we reward those who boldly and openly change to our side in this debate by rejecting them as cynics, we can expect to see fewer converts!

We now come to Mr. Huckabee. It is likely that he is the only believer in these top four. However, he paradoxically does not appear to believe in or govern according to what I hold to be biblical (conservative) principles of government. More troubling, I don't believe he has sufficient grasp of the war on terror, of economics, or of the intricacies of foreign relations. Frankly, he seems out of his depth at the presidential level. Actually, I think his nomination would be a disaster for evangelicals, because we will be blamed for any of his mistakes—like it or not, he is our candidate in the eyes of the country. Please do not vote for him in the primary! (But note, if he or anyone but Rudy is the nominee, I will definitely recommend him over either Hillary or Obama).

Now, by this point you may wonder why I haven't recommended one of the other candidates, who may actually adhere more strongly to the "gold standard" I'd like to see. Unfortunately, they're just not in the race anymore. In my opinion, while there is an acceptable conservative who is still competitive, and the race is this tight!!!, you must vote for him. Otherwise, the answer will by Rudy or McCain!!

Update: The actual effect of this measure will be to continue to place more of the tax burden on new homeowners to the state, and to prolong and make permanent the relative burden advantage enjoyed by long-term, homestead-eligible homeowners by limiting the growth in assessments to 3% a year, even when you move to a new home. This tends to limit growth, by making things more expensive for new people in the state, relative to existing residents. It is important to note that this measure does not limit taxes directly—only the assessed value. Note that your taxes are your assessment TIMES the millage rate. So the county and cities can simply increase the millage rate to maintain or even increase your tax bill, in principle, year-to-year, absent other reforms and limits.

Now in Brevard we have an existing 10% increase per year limit in the TOTAL taxes the county may collect—so that helps some in this regard. Also, there is a statewide limit on towns (municipilaties) on millage rate of 10 mils (1%). Finally, combined with the possibility of reinstating the 3% per year overall tax rate increase via the Brevard charter (see above), Ultimately, there is no substitute for conservative leaders at the county level. This measure just puts a little more pressure on officials to hold down costs.

As a handy calculator of the effect of the measure on assessed values when you change homes, here's some pseudo-code (new_just_value is market value for your new house, etc.):

	if (new_just_value >= old_just_value)
		new_assessed_value = new_just_value - min($500K,(old_just_value - old_assessed_value));
	else
		new_assessed_value = MAX(new_just_value - $500K, ...
								(new_just_value / old_just_value)*old_assessed_value);
	end